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what markets would the bell curve become inappropriate?
November 30, 2009 on 7:27 am | By advertising | In marketing |Can you come up with some illustrations where the bell curve type analysis is inappropriate?
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This is the subject of a book called "Black Swan," by Taleb Nassim. You should read this incredibly interesting book written in 2005.
Until the UK discovered Austalia, everyone thought that all swans were white. They insisted that the black Australian swans were a different breed of swan. Everyone knows swans are white.
The bell curve represents "normal" distribution, or common occurence of a variable, where the peak of the curve is the most probable event. The problem is, it doesn’t allow for "abnormal" events.
The stock market crash of 1928 or 1987 does not fit under the bell curve. The housing bubble and subsequent meltdown and near failure of the entire financial system in 2008 is not modeled by the bell curve, and since it falls outside the curve, is not a consideration, and nobody was prepared. These are all "black swan" events. Getting pregnant or divorced may be black swan events that we are not prepared for.
Without concession or some provisional exception included in the model, the bell curve is inappropriate for all markets. It is effective until the whole system falls apart, or is sideswiped by the unknown into oblivion.
Comment by b2fnow — November 30, 2009 #